At our recent LEADERS SUMMIT in Sydney, attended by over 250 retirement village and care senior executives Jim Hazel presented thought provoking predictions for the village and care sectors one and five years out..

Jim is arguably the most senior and experienced executive in the retirement village sector. He has built a unique perspective over 30 years in his senior roles with Adelaide Bank, CEO of Primelife and now Chairman of Ingenia and Omega Communities, as well as a Director of Bendigo Bank.

He opened by stating he is not Nostradamus; however you be the judge. Here are his predictions in point form:

Predictions – One Year Out


• Retirement villages that don't have care strategies will die
• Private hostel model will predominate
• Beacon Hill model - he likes it
• Manufactured home parks will boom
• Another bubble forming in listed aged care
• Retirement village sector consolidation will come again and values improve, and foreign investment will come

Predictions – Five Years Out


• Church and charitable sector dominates mainstream seniors housing and care
• The capital linked DMF model has largely disappeared and been replaced by hybrid donation style models
• Lifestyle villages have died out
• In aged care funding, RADs and DAPs are now 50:50
• The manufactured home park model is the mainstream affordable seniors housing model, and still private sector led.
• The residential aged care sector has totally deregulated, with CDC coming in universally and supply side deregulation
• New seniors housing developments are mainly medium density continuum of care facilities in the middle ring of capital cities
• The export of Australian care and training services into China and other developing markets has become a big business for Australian not for profits

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